ONE DEFENSIBLE MODEL UPDATEFinding and evidence
DOC-03 “Account treatment” excludes affiliate aggregation; “Program calculation” excludes freight and deducts returns accepted by December 31. Reconcile DOC-05’s $12.240m AP group less $2.000m affiliate, $0.180m freight and $0.060m late-posted accepted returns to $10.000m eligible volume. These clauses do not support the seller’s group-based tier claim.
Earnings treatment
Earned rebate is $0.150m against $0.450m booked. Increase FY2025 COGS and reduce the rebate receivable by $0.300m. Retain the accepted addbacks; revised adjusted EBITDA is $3.600m. The return memo itself does not create another earnings correction.
Price and funding
The $23.400m LOI price now implies 6.50× and $12.700m equity. Both mandate limits fail. Maximum permitted EV is $21.600m, with $11.700m assumed debt and $10.900m equity.
Recommendation
Seek a re-trade to no more than $21.600m, conditional on the remaining diligence. The quantified change supports revised economics; it does not establish an attractive return or guarantee that the seller will accept.
Conditions and unresolved questions
First, Q-08: further unsupported vendor accruals would reduce my earnings base and bid. Second, Q-05: unexplained SKU margin gains would make me pause rather than underwrite their continuation. Third, Q-09: cash needs, maintenance capex or unfavorable working-capital definitions could require more equity or a lower price. Confirm seller alignment, the future owner’s operating role, any replacement compensation and committed equity and debt. No amount is supplied for a further deduction.
Compare the evidence, economics and conditions. Different wording, a lower bid or a well-supported pause/pass can also be defensible.